THIS WEEK’S BIG STORY

The SEC finally brings clarity to crypto definition after years of regulatory uncertainty

A week of Bitcoin price swings, Fed policy decisions, record crypto transactions, and a major chip deal. Here’s what it all means for your investments.

In this issue: 

• Bitcoin’s highs and lows
• The SEC’s crypto guidance
• The Fed’s interest rates 
• Nigeria’s crypto adoption growth 
• Nvidia & AWS strike a deal

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01 — MARKETS

Unpacking Bitcoin’s week: the highs and the lows

In the early hours of Tuesday, 17 March, Bitcoin surged briefly, hitting a high of $75,800 before steadily retreating to close the week around $70,000.

The rally was reportedly driven by derivatives activity, specifically the closure of large $60,000 put positions that forced market makers to purchase spot bitcoin as they rebalanced. This coincided with traders unwinding bearish short positions opened during the early February sell-off.

A put option is a derivatives contract that gives traders the right to sell Bitcoin at a fixed price before a set date, essentially acting as insurance against a price drop. In this case, traders had placed puts at $55,000 and $60,000, betting Bitcoin would fall that low. As expiry neared and those bets turned unlikely, traders unwound their positions, creating buying pressure that pushed Bitcoin’s price higher.

The surge lifted the broader crypto market, with the CoinDesk 20 Index gaining 5% over 24 hours. Ether climbed 13.3% to $2,316, XRP rose 11% to $1.53, Solana gained 9.7% to $93.92, and BNB rose 5% to $676.

Markets saw some downside pressure towards the end of the week, though, following the Fed’s latest meeting, where it left interest rates unchanged. Oil prices swung back toward $100 a barrel, and gold dropped 5% to around $4,500 an ounce. 

The hour of quadruple witching

In the same week, Friday brought so-called quadruple witching, a quarterly event where stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and single-stock futures all expire on the same day. The event occurs four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, and typically leads to heightened market activity during the final hour of trading as traders adjust their positions. Although this does not directly cause volatility, understanding the mentioned dynamics of the event allows investors to better prepare and strategise around potential price movements.

The numbers behind these expiries were substantial. March 2025 saw roughly $4.7 trillion worth of contracts expire in a single session, making it the highest volume trading day for the S&P 500 that year, according to TradeStation.

The timing of this quarter’s expiry was particularly notable, as markets were already navigating geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher, a retreating gold price, and a pullback in Bitcoin markets.

DECODED

Despite price fluctuations resulting from geopolitical tensions and other factors, Bitcoin has held up relatively well. Could it suggest growing resilience even as it faces the same pressures as equities and commodities.

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02 — REGULATION

The SEC and CFTC define crypto after years of regulatory uncertainty

On Tuesday, 17 March, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published guidance clarifying how federal securities laws apply to crypto assets, ending more than a decade of regulatory uncertainty. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also contributed to the guidance, confirming that “non-security crypto assets” meet the definition of “commodity” under the Commodity Exchange Act.

The guidance introduces a five-category classification system to determine the regulatory obligations of crypto assets, as reported by Yahoo Finance and Fox Rothschild.

1. Digital commodities – non security

Digital commodities are crypto assets whose value derives from the programmatic operation of a functional crypto system and supply-and-demand dynamics, rather than from expectations of profit based on the efforts of others. 

The SEC identified the following as digital commodities: Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Cardano, XRP, Dogecoin, Avalanche, Polkadot, Chainlink, Litecoin, Hedera, Shiba Inu, Stellar, Tezos, Aptos, Bitcoin Cash, Algorand, and LBRY Credits.

2. Digital collectibles – non security

Digital collectibles, including NFTs and meme coins, are crypto assets designed to be collected or used, representing artwork, music, videos, trading cards, in-game items, or digital cultural content. Their value derives from artistic, entertainment, or cultural significance rather than managerial efforts. 

Assets classified under this category include CryptoPunks, Chromie Squiggles, Fan Tokens, WIF, and VCOIN.

3. Digital tools – non security

Digital tools are crypto assets that perform practical functions such as memberships, tickets, credentials, or identity verification. Their value derives from functional utility and they are often non-transferable. Ethereum Name Service domain names and CoinDesk’s Microcosms NFT Consensus Ticket fall under this category.

4. Stablecoins – non security

Under the GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, payment stablecoins issued by permitted issuers are excluded from the definition of “security.” These issuers are prohibited from paying interest or yield to holders solely for holding or retaining the stablecoin. Any GENIUS Act-compliant payment stablecoin is classified as a non-security. Stablecoins outside this definition may still qualify as securities depending on the circumstances.

5. Digital securities – securities

Digital securities, commonly referred to as tokenised securities, are financial instruments represented by crypto assets where ownership records are maintained on a blockchain. These remain fully subject to federal securities laws regardless of their format. 

Crypto assets that fail the Howey test are classified as securities. However, a non-security crypto asset can become a security if offered via an investment contract where purchasers expect profit from the managerial efforts of others. Equally, a crypto asset can revert to non-security status once the original investment contract is fulfilled or the issuer fails to deliver on promised obligations.

DECODED

This crypto guidance and classification system gives the industry regulatory certainty, allowing companies to build products and services knowing which rules apply, and which don’t. 

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03 – MACRO

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged as market uncertainty grows

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on 17-18 March to assess economic conditions and determine whether to adjust interest rates, a decision that carries significant weight for global financial markets as it directly affects borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

Heading into the meeting, the Fed faced a difficult backdrop, including ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices, an inflation rate still above the 2% target, and mixed signals from the labour market. As such, it was widely expected that the Fed would hold its key interest rate steady between 3.5%-3.75%, CNBC reports.

“The decision itself is almost guaranteed — a rate hold at the March meeting. But any hints Chair Powell might drop about the path of future interest rates will be key. Broadly speaking, the U.S. economy is still on solid footing. This means however that the bar for further rate cuts in the U.S. may be quite elevated,” said BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments.

The Fed released its latest major policy announcement on Wednesday and, as anticipated, interest rates remained unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Alongside this decision, the Fed also published its first Summary of Economic Projections for 2026, maintaining a median forecast of one rate cut this year, consistent with December’s projections, according to Yahoo Finance.

Stocks fell on Wednesday and Thursday following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, where he acknowledged that progress on inflation had fallen short of expectations. The recent spike in oil prices, due to the Middle East conflict, has added complexity to the Fed’s decisions, as inflation remains above target and the labour market shows signs of slowing.

DECODED

The Fed held rates unchanged because inflation remains above its 2% target. This means borrowing costs won’t come down as quickly as markets hoped, keeping pressure on businesses and consumers until inflation is clearly under control.

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04 — AFRICAN MARKETS & REGULATION

Nigeria emerges as one of the world’s most active crypto markets with nearly $100 billion in transactions

Nigeria’s cryptocurrency market has reached an estimated $96 billion in transaction value, according to Emomotimi Agama, Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in Nigeria, Business Insider Africa reports.

“It is a known fact from research and statistics that cryptocurrency operation is within the range of $96bn in transaction flow in Nigeria, and that is important for us to manage,” said Agama.

These figures indicate that Nigeria is not only one of the world’s most active crypto markets, but also a country that has seen widespread adoption of alternative financial systems.

Regulators have responded by enacting the Investment and Securities Act 2025, which strengthens the SEC’s authority over digital assets, formally recognising it as the apex regulator of Nigeria’s capital market and introducing measures to bring local rules in line with global standards.

Beyond transaction growth, the broader capital market has also expanded significantly, lifting the market cap-to-GDP ratio from 13% to around 33%, reflecting deeper integration of capital markets into the broader economy.

The SEC aims to build on this progress, targeting a capitalisation-to-GDP ratio closer to levels seen in major emerging economies such as India.

DECODED 

Digital assets have become essential financial infrastructure, filling gaps traditional banking is yet to address. The government’s regulatory approach could signal acceptance that crypto is now too embedded in the economy to ignore or ban.

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05 — TECH & MARKETS

Nvidia strikes a chip deal with AWS for one million GPUs by 2027

Nvidia has confirmed it will sell one million graphics processing unit (GPU) chips and other product offerings to Amazon Web Services by 2027, Reuters reports. The details were confirmed by Ian Buck, vice president of hyperscale and high-performance computing at Nvidia, who spoke to Reuters on Thursday, explaining that sales would start this year and conclude in 2027.

The deal extends beyond GPUs and includes Nvidia’s Spectrum networking chips and Groq chips, released this week following its $17 billion licensing deal with an AI chip startup late last year. AWS plans to use a combination of Groq chips alongside six other Nvidia chips to improve inference, a process where AI systems generate responses and carry out tasks for users.

The deal also includes the installation of Nvidia’s ConnectX and Spectrum X networking equipment in AWS data centres, a notable development given that AWS has historically relied on its own custom-built networking infrastructure.

DECODED

Nvidia’s million-chip deal with AWS reinforces the company’s dominance in AI computing.

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06 – Investing 

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